An Exclusive Conversation with Alden Graff Tokyo Japan
Interviewer: Retirement today looks vastly different from a generation ago. How should people start thinking about what they’ll need in the future?
Alden Graff Advisor: You’re absolutely right. Retirement isn’t just about “not working”—it’s about replacing your income while managing healthcare, lifestyle, inflation, and the unknown. The starting point is forecasting future needs with discipline and precision, not guesswork.
That’s where we come in. At Alden Graff Tokyo Japan, we help our clients create structured, forward-looking plans that anticipate both the predictable and the unpredictable.
Q: What are the core categories of expenses retirees should plan for?
Advisor: We group retirement needs into four main buckets:
- Essential Living Costs
Think housing, food, transportation, and utilities. These are your non-negotiables. - Healthcare Expenses
This includes insurance premiums, out-of-pocket medical costs, long-term care, dental, and vision. - Lifestyle Discretionary Spending
Travel, hobbies, dining, gifts for family, entertainment—these enrich your retirement years. - Contingencies
Emergencies, home repairs, inflation surges, or family support. These are harder to predict but crucial to include.
Our philosophy is to plan for stability, but build in resilience.
Q: What’s the most commonly underestimated cost?
Advisor: Hands down—healthcare.
Especially in Japan, where people are living into their 90s and beyond, healthcare costs can rise sharply later in life. While Japan has a strong public health system, retirees often forget:
- The limits of national coverage
- The rising costs of supplemental insurance
- Long-term care facility expenses
- In-home nursing or assisted living
We simulate healthcare inflation at 3–6% per year, which is often higher than general inflation. It’s a silent wealth eroder if not planned for.
Q: How do you project how much a client will need in retirement?
Advisor: We begin with a lifestyle audit—what will you spend on monthly? Where will you live? Will you travel? Are you supporting others?
Then we model:
- Expected retirement duration (usually to age 95+)
- Inflation (2–3% baseline, higher for healthcare)
- Future tax rates
- Market returns under conservative assumptions
Finally, we apply stress-testing:
- What if the market underperforms?
- What if you live longer than expected?
- What if you need ¥500,000/month in care at age 85?
This results in a retirement need projection—a roadmap with built-in buffers.
Q: Can you give a sample forecast for a Tokyo-based client?
Advisor: Absolutely. Let’s imagine:
- Mr. Sato, age 55, plans to retire at 65
- Target retirement income: ¥600,000/month
- Current savings: ¥60 million
- Expected lifespan: age 95
- Inflation: 2.5%
- Investment growth: 5% pre-retirement, 3% post-retirement
With these assumptions, Mr. Sato will need approximately ¥140–150 million in total to support his lifestyle for 30 years, accounting for inflation and healthcare spikes.
We’ll often recommend he:
- Max out iDeCo contributions
- Shift to dividend-focused ETFs in the final years
- Plan for healthcare costs of ¥30 million+ over retirement
Q: What about inflation—how big a threat is it, really?
Advisor: Inflation is massively underestimated, especially over long retirements. Consider this:
- A ¥100,000 monthly expense today will cost ¥180,000 in 25 years at 2.5% inflation.
- Healthcare costs in Japan have doubled in the last 20 years.
- Energy, food, and services also tend to inflate faster than income streams like pensions.
We counteract this by:
- Using inflation-adjusted projections
- Investing in real assets and equities
- Avoiding overexposure to fixed-income too early
- Holding cash reserves for short-term shocks
Inflation isn’t a maybe—it’s a certainty. We make sure it’s built into every scenario we run.
Q: How does long-term care planning fit into the equation?
Advisor: Long-term care is one of the most financially devastating risks if not anticipated.
In Japan, nursing home or full-time care can easily cost:
- ¥300,000 to ¥500,000 per month for private care
- More if you need specialized medical supervision
The average stay? Three years, and some stay ten.
We explore multiple strategies:
- Purchasing long-term care insurance early
- Building a dedicated “care fund”
- Leveraging real estate equity
- Planning for home modifications
It’s not just about money—it’s about choice and dignity. If you plan early, you retain control over your care options later in life.
Q: Are there different considerations for single retirees versus couples?
Advisor: Yes—many!
Singles need to plan for:
- One income stream
- Greater need for assisted living options
- Possibly no children to provide care
Couples must plan for:
- Survivor income needs (pensions often reduce after one partner dies)
- Healthcare costs for both individuals
- Coordinating retirement ages and goals
We model each case separately. For example:
- What happens if one spouse lives 15 years longer?
- Can the surviving partner maintain the home?
Retirement isn’t just about accumulation—it’s about protecting both lives.
Q: How does Alden Graff Tokyo Japan help clients prepare for uncertainty?
Advisor: We use three pillars:
1. Precision Forecasting Tools
We simulate thousands of scenarios to understand what your future might hold—then build buffers to ensure success across 90%+ of them.
2. Flexible Withdrawal Planning
We don’t believe in fixed withdrawal rates. Instead, we use dynamic strategies that adjust to market conditions and lifestyle changes.
3. Risk-Contingency Planning
This includes:
- Emergency funds
- Income bridges for early retirement
- Inflation hedging
- Geographic flexibility (relocating to lower-cost countries if needed)
And most importantly, we revisit the plan annually. What works at age 65 might need adjusting at 75.
Q: What’s one myth about retirement planning you’d love to bust?
Advisor: That “spending will go down in retirement.” It might—for a few years—but many retirees see spikes in:
- Early years: travel and leisure
- Middle years: home renovations, gifting, helping children
- Later years: healthcare and assisted living
Also, inflation compounds. You may need double your current income by your late 80s. That’s why we plan not just for peace of mind—but sustainability.
Q: What resources or tools do clients get with Alden Graff?
Advisor: Every retirement client receives:
✅ A customized 30-year retirement forecast
✅ A healthcare needs projection with cost modeling
✅ Inflation- and tax-adjusted income simulations
✅ Risk analysis (longevity, market, health)
✅ Annual “Retirement Health Check”
✅ Access to global planning experts for expatriates or dual residents
✅ Coordination with your tax and estate attorneys
Our process is holistic, disciplined, and always tailored to you.
Q: Last question—how should someone start preparing now?
Advisor: Start by doing these 3 things today:
- Track your monthly spending. You can’t plan if you don’t know what you need.
- Get a rough idea of your retirement timeline. Even if it changes, this helps frame your savings targets.
- Schedule a discovery session. We’ll help you assess where you are—and how to anticipate what’s coming.
The earlier you start, the more options you’ll have. Time is leverage.
🔚 Final Thoughts: Plan for the Life You Can’t Yet See
Retirement is full of joy, freedom, and new beginnings—but only when you’ve built a plan that accounts for what’s ahead.
At Alden Graff Tokyo Japan, we don’t just look at your portfolio—we look into your future. Through precise forecasting, deep expertise, and proactive risk management, we help you anticipate tomorrow—so you can enjoy today.
“Retirement security isn’t built by luck. It’s built by foresight.”